Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity
Eddy, T.D. (2019). Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity, in: Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M. et al. Predicting future oceans: Sustainability of ocean and human systems amidst global environmental change. pp. 69-76. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-817945-1.00007-1
In: Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Ota, Y. (Ed.) (2019). Predicting future oceans: Sustainability of ocean and human systems amidst global environmental change. Elsevier: Amsterdam. ISBN 978-0-12-817945-1. xxvii, 554 pp. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/c2018-0-02416-0, meer
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| Abstract |
The ocean provides humans with a wide range of ecosystem services such as food provision, carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and biodiversity. The capacity of the ocean to provide ecosystem services is impacted by humans through climate change and fisheries. Understanding the extent of human impacts on ocean capacity and ecosystem services and how they will change under different carbon emission and exploitation scenarios is necessary to inform evidence-based policies and decision making. Scientists have developed models of marine ecosystem and fisheries to make future ocean projections. Models are simplifications and abstractions of the real world, and model approaches vary greatly in the processes that they represent, the assumptions that they make, and the data that they are informed by. As a result of this heterogeneity, different models often give different projections of future ocean capacity. In order to address this variability in projections, systematic approaches to compare models referred to as model intercomparison projects (MIPs), have been developed for many socio-ecological systems. The fisheries and marine ecosystem MIP (FishMIP) was formed to develop a standardized method to perform future climate change and fisheries projections for regional and global scale models. This chapter describes key insights from the FishMIP experience to build confidence in projections of future ocean capacity. |
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