Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures
Chan, D.; Vecchi, G.A.; Yang, W.; Huybers, P. (2021). Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures. Science Advances 7(26): eabg6931. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg6931
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. ISSN 2375-2548; e-ISSN 2375-2548, meer
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| Auteurs | | Top |
- Chan, D.
- Vecchi, G.A.
- Yang, W.
- Huybers, P.
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| Abstract |
Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We apply recently developed corrections for biases in historical SSTs that lead to revisions in tropical to subtropical SST gradients by ±0.1°C. Revised atmospheric simulations have 20% adjustments in the decadal variations of hurricane frequency and become more consistent with observations. The improved simulation skill from revised SST estimates not only supports the utility of high-resolution atmospheric models for hurricane projections but also highlights the need for accurate estimates of past and future patterns of SST changes. |
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