Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California
Huang, X.; Swain, D.L.; Hall, A.D. (2020). Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California. Science Advances 6(29): eaba1323. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1323
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. ISSN 2375-2548; e-ISSN 2375-2548, meer
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| Auteurs | | Top |
- Huang, X.
- Swain, D.L.
- Hall, A.D.
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| Abstract |
Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius-Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes. |
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