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Inflation-predictable behavior and co-eruption deformation at Axial Seamount
Nooner, S.L.; Chadwick Jr., W.W. (2016). Inflation-predictable behavior and co-eruption deformation at Axial Seamount. Science (Wash.) 354(6318): 1399-1403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4666
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, meer
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  • Nooner, S.L.
  • Chadwick Jr., W.W.

Abstract
    Deformation of the ground surface at active volcanoes provides information about magma movements at depth. Improved seafloor deformation measurements between 2011 and 2015 documented a fourfold increase in magma supply and confirmed that Axial Seamount’s eruptive behavior is inflation-predictable, probably triggered by a critical level of magmatic pressure. A 2015 eruption was successfully forecast on the basis of this deformation pattern and marked the first time that deflation and tilt were captured in real time by a new seafloor cabled observatory, revealing the timing, location, and volume of eruption-related magma movements. Improved modeling of the deformation suggests a steeply dipping prolate-spheroid pressure source beneath the eastern caldera that is consistent with the location of the zone of highest melt within the subcaldera magma reservoir determined from multichannel seismic results.

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