Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
Liu, Y.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Kucharski, F.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Abid, M.A.; Li, X. (2023). Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice. Nature Comm. 14(1): 8286. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1
In: Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Liu, Y.
- Sun, C.
- Li, J.
- Kucharski, F.
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- Di Lorenzo, E.
- Abid, M.A.
- Li, X.
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| Abstract |
Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability. |
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