Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure
Geiger, T.; Gütschow, J.; Bresch, D.N.; Emanuel, K.; Frieler, K. (2021). Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11(10): 861-866. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Geiger, T.
- Gütschow, J.
- Bresch, D.N.
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| Abstract |
Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100. |
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