Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
Singh, M.; Krishnan, R.; Goswami, B.; Choudhury, A.D.; Swapna, P.; Vellore, R.; Prajeesh, A.G.; Sandeep, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Donner, R.V.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J. (2020). Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling. Science Advances 6(38): eaba8164. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. ISSN 2375-2548; e-ISSN 2375-2548, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Singh, M.
- Krishnan, R.
- Goswami, B.
- Choudhury, A.D.
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- Swapna, P.
- Vellore, R.
- Prajeesh, A.G.
- Sandeep, N.
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- Venkataraman, C.
- Donner, R.V.
- Marwan, N.
- Kurths, J.
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| Abstract |
Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions. |
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