Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target
Li, C.; Held, H.; Hokamp, S.; Marotzke, J. (2020). Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target. Science Advances 6(2): eaaw9490. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. ISSN 2375-2548; e-ISSN 2375-2548, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Li, C.
- Held, H.
- Hokamp, S.
- Marotzke, J.
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| Abstract |
The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter. |
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