Transition probabilities of noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation
Castellana, D.; Baars, S.; Wubs, F.W.; Dijkstra, H.A. (2019). Transition probabilities of noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. NPG Scientific Reports 9(1): 20284. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6
In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322; e-ISSN 2045-2322, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- Castellana, D.
- Baars, S.
- Wubs, F.W.
- Dijkstra, H.A.
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| Abstract |
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude. |
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