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Évaluation des niveaux d'eau extrêmes du futur sur l'estuaire de la Gironde = Evaluation of future extreme water levels in Gironde Estuary
Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P. (2012). Évaluation des niveaux d'eau extrêmes du futur sur l'estuaire de la Gironde = Evaluation of future extreme water levels in Gironde Estuary, in: Actes du Colloque du Centenaire de la SHF: Evénements extrêmes fluviaux et maritimes. Leurs variabilités spatiales et chronologiques dans l’ouest de l’Europe, 1-2 février 2012, Paris. pp. 1-8
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Keywords
    Analysis > Mathematical analysis > Statistical analysis
    Levels > Water levels
    Models > Mathematical models
    ANE, France, Gironde Estuary [Marine Regions]
    Marine/Coastal
Authors  Top 
  • Laborie, V.
  • Hissel, F., more
  • Sergent, P.
Abstract
    An overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. It has been fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, the global signal (tide + surge level) at Le Verdon, the discharges of the Garonne (at La Réole), of the Dordogne (at Pessac) and of the river Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on marigraphic measures for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimist one of the ONERC : 60 cm in 2100. The analysis of future surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in surge levels quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of future water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model to the upstream of Gironde Estuary.
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