Past, Present and Future Marine Climate Change

The ocean acts as a significant sink for man-made carbon dioxide and holds the potential for nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. Exploiting these solutions, however, requires understanding of the processes driving the marine carbon cycle and its variations in space and time, at the Belgian coast, on the European shelf and in the global ocean.

To provide estimates of the uptake and storage of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in support of regional and global carbon budget analyses, VLIZ makes best use of the wealth of data collected through the ICOS and LifeWatch campaigns. 

Eenvoudig schematisch overzicht van de fluxen en stocks van koolstof
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In the Past, Present and Future Marine Climate Change group, we are also developing new techniques based on machine learning to scale up Earth Observations and in-situ measurements. In particular, we develop and maintain our own 2-step machine learning method (SOM-FFN) to reconstruct sea surface pCO2 and CO2 flux maps for the open and coastal ocean at different spatial and time scales. With those reconstructed products, our group study the carbon cycle and fluxes between reservoirs, investigate changes over different timescales (from year-to-year fluctuations to long-term changes) in the Belgian Part of the North Sea and global oceans and study the response to extremes events such as marine heat waves.

We are also involved in the development and exploitation of instruments and new measuring platforms (e.g. sailboats) to improve the observation system and in the evaluation of the Earth System Models.

Although the main research focus stems from the desire to understand the contemporary carbon cycle, both past reconstructions and future predictions are part of our research group's portfolio. Our data-based estimates of the air-sea CO2 exchange are widely used, for example by assessment studies such as the Global Carbon Budget or the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. 

The Team: 

"While being interested in many aspects of the ocean in the Earth system, my own research focus is set on ocean biogeochemistry and the marine carbon cycle. My expertise ranges from CO2 measurements through big data modelling using artificial neural networks. I am particularly interested in natural and man-made changes in the air-sea CO2 exchange on climate relevant temporal, and from local to global spatial scales."

Recent and relevant publication

  • Roobaert, A., Regnier, P., Landschützer, P., and Laruelle, G. G.: A novel sea surface pCO2-product for the global coastal ocean resolving trends over 1982–2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 421–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, 2024.
  • Friedlingstein, P., et al., Gkritzalis, T., et al., Landschützer, P., et al. (110 authors), 2022. Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth Syst Sci Data 14, 4811–4900. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
  • Gruber, N., Bakker, D.C.E., DeVries, T., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., McKinley, G.A., Müller, J.D., 2023. Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 119–134. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00381-x
  • Landschützer, P., Tanhua, T., Behncke, J., Keppler, L., 2023. Sailing through the southern seas of air–sea CO 2 flux uncertainty. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 381. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0064
  • Ostle, C., Landschützer, P., Edwards, M., Johnson, M., Schmidtko, S., Schuster, U., Watson, A.J., Robinson, C., 2022. Multidecadal changes in biology influence the variability of the North Atlantic carbon sink. Environmental Research Letters 17, 114056. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9ecf

SOCOM – Surface Ocean CO2 Mapping intercomparison project

BERNARDO - The partners in the BERNARDO project examine the potential of marine carbon for a sustainable blue economy

AI4PEX - Artificial Intelligence for enhanced representation of processes and extremes in Earth System Models